Cathie's Ark Trading Floor
An organized place to discuss:
- 📈 ARK ETFs
- 🏦 Ark Portfolio Companies
- 🥇 Investable Disruptive Technologies
- 📰 Member Research
What we're about
People in this community realize four things.
One There always are, have been, and will be companies that heavily outperform the market on 1, 5 and 10 year timelines. Outperforming to an extent that they are labeled statistical outliers.
Two Those outlier companies are almost always pioneers of a new industry or technology.
Three Cathie Wood and the ARK Invest team are the tip of the spear. They provide a list of opportunities that you can invest in as a bucket (the Ark ETFs) or you can go off and decide which ones you personally have the highest conviction on.
Four If you want to retire in ten years, this is probably your best shot. This is most certainly not a guarantee that joining Cathie’s Ark will get there and it never will be. But the safe dividends of 3M, Citibank, and Exxon Mobil are a guarantee that you won’t.
You choose your own level of risk. Maybe you want to dabble in future tech by adding the Ark ETFs to your portfolio. Or maybe you want your whole portfolio to be future tech. Either way, this is what the Cathie’s Ark community is for.
We share ideas, research, knowledge, and news about the companies and ETFs involved in the ARK ecosystem. We’re supportive and excited for everyone that can win with us. And though we realize that the markets are individually zero-sum, we also know that on a small scale aggregate like Cathie’s Ark it is possible for everyone to walk away a healthy winner in ten years time. Maybe not as much as the next person 😏 but enough to make our time spent worthwhile.
What we're not about
This is not a place for quick trade ideas, buy and sell lists, "the play of the day", or posting your daily profit and loss. While many members are active traders and do shares trade ideas this is more about knowledge and better understanding of the companies and technology in the ARK portfolio. Sometimes we do have good discussion around trade strategy and wisdom, but we aren't hunting the quick gamble.
If the bold sentence above sounds more like what you're looking for we recommend StockTwits, Reddit, or Twitter.
So with that out of the way... there are over 4,000 members, with the number growing each day. It’s pretty great, you should check it out!
What you'll get
- 📅 Exclusive access to Trades and Storylines (See below) which provides in-depth color on the daily ARK trade report
- 🔑 30-day Members-Only Access to major posts (See below) and research from Cathie's Ark
- 🕵🏼♂️ 50% discount on paid research
- ⭐️ An incredibly smart community that provides daily insight on ARK and the companies in the ARK portfolio
📅 Snipped from the Trades and Storylines:
April 12 - NVDA (Nvidia) is not on the trade sheet but they're holding the NVDA GTC conference this week. Already announcements have moved the price significantly higher.
First, they stated that numbers were ahead of original first quarter expectations. Interestingly... "the company also raised its first-quarter revenue estimate for its new CMP product for industrial-scale cryptocurrency mining to $150 million, up from $50 million previously expected". That's $600mil annually, give or take, depending how cyclical that business line is. Which is alone interesting but says a lot about the demand for mining equipment, a bullish indicator for crypto in general.
Second, they announced an avalanche of new products which are worth browsing through. Two things to mention there...
One, Nvidia Jarvis is moving into full release after a limited release last spring. Jarvis, as the Marvel inspired name implies, is a conversation tool that promises 300ms or less latency. 400ms is known as the Doherty Threshold, the point at which a human can notice lag and attention starts to slip.
While not a hard and true number there is plenty of evidence that says the longer you have to wait the more likely you are to move on. Anecdotally, I was talking to a Microsoft Bing engineer--hard to believe but true, there are only four core Bing** engineers in all of Microsoft--a few weeks ago and he was tasked last January with shaving 10ms off Bing search query response times because Microsoft noticed a significant drop in user stickiness for every ms of lag.
A whole year of your life for 10ms, think about that.
Two, is that NVDA is an AI company now. Not that this is jarringly new but if you comb through the 259 pages of blog posts from the company you find that AI has far outpaced mentions compared to graphics or anything else. Also the entire first day of the conference--also the day of the keynote--saw just one blog post released on graphics out of fifteen total. SDGR even got a mention as a new drug discovery partner.
March 24 - ⭐️ New Position SPFR (VELO3D) just got SPACed into a terrible market. Not that it matters to the company, only to share holders of the SPAC that wanted to sell the pop...
...what would normally be written here can be found on this **high-level overview thread**, making it easier to find later...
DM (Desktop Metal) isn't in any of the major ARK ETFs. That alone should say something about the difference in potential. ARK added SPFR at a weight of .23% to ARKQ. This appears to be a position switch with ISRG (Intuitive Surgical)
March 16 - LC (Lending Club) has seen it's name on the trade sheet all week as the name rockets higher. 7 days ago it was trading at $9.50 and today it closed at almost $18. We've been talking about LC on here for a couple of months now, so to see it move like this isn't completely unexpected.
What is unexpected, in my opinion, is ARK continuing to buy it. The earnings report and investor presentation didn't reveal anything new other than guiding revenue higher for 2021. But the meat of the company, a digital bank transformation after merging with Radius in February, has been known for quite some time.
Having scoured the wires for information that might have slipped through, nothing has come up. So it seems that this is a reevaluation by the ARK analyst team.
ARKs cost average for the ARKF position is a little over $16 and had been about $16.50 prior to this big run.
March 16 - PTON (Peloton) has taken a vertical integration strategy with the acquisition of Precor being announced back in December. Whether ARK had a sense that this was going to happen two weeks after they started the position can't be said. But as soon as ARK bought, the stock began trending higher until it reached a crescendo after the December 21 announcement.
While we give ARK credit for a lot of market moving action, which is true, this to me seems like it may have been rumored or leaked. ARK was on their game, but look what happened after the announcement... the stock traded down and has continued to fall. i.e. the merger was baked into the price by the time it was announced.
Either way, the allure of Precor is that it vertically integrates Peloton. Precor will bring their manufacturing expertise to all of the Peloton products. And it will do it all in the United States. Making this a savvy domestic manufacturing move that ticks multiple upgrade boxes.
Whether or not people stop buying PTON when gyms open back up, 50/50 and pick 'em. My gut says that's probably not the case. But either way, long term, Peloton is likely to become the go-to home exercise tech company. Here's the best part...
At this point, after taking a beating by being an anti-reopening play, it's gotten knocked down to trading at 12x trailing sales. It's growing revenue like gangbusters and, as a bonus, it's been profitable for 3 of the last 4 quarters.
This could end up being an interesting contrarian play over the next few months. One to keep an eye on.
On a totally unrelated note, when I think of PTON, I think of that episode of Black Mirror where they're riding the stationary bikes forever to accrue points to buy digital goods with.
February 16 - U (Unity) gets another buy in ARKQ. Pointing back to the start in ARKQ when Unity announced robotics enhancements earlier this month. U also announced an acquisition of VisualLive earlier this month which is in the business of virtual and augmented reality walk throughs of commercial space and construction projects...
"Job site walkthroughs for construction and facilities management are "fraught with human errors," while the promise of reality capture is time-consuming and expensive, Unity notes. VisualLive ensures instant inspection and validation of designs to avoid costly mistakes."
It's worth checking out the VisualLive site to get a sense of how a construction site walkthrough would be useful and in Unity's wheelhouse.
January 27 - MASS (908 Devices) has seen ARK quietly pick up about 3.5% of the company. This is another medical/testing device designer and manufacturer that has three products directed toward both the medical and first responder fields. A lot of similarities to BFLY (Butterfly Networks) in that they're taking old stodgy lab based equipment and either making it better and more efficient or small and mobile so it can be brought where it's needed.
Earnings transcript and PR overview can be found here.
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